Development and validation of a preliminary multivariable diagnostic model for identifying unusual infections in hospitalized patients.

Diagnostic delay leads to poor outcomes in infections, and it occurs more often when the causative agent is unusual. Delays are attributable to failing to consider such diagnoses in a timely fashion. Using routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) data, we built a preliminary multivariable diagnostic model for early identification of unusual fungal infections and tuberculosis in hospitalized patients. We conducted a two-gate case-control study. Cases encompassed adult patients admitted to 19 Mayo Clinic enterprise hospitals between January 2010 and March 2023 diagnosed with blastomycosis, cryptococcosis, histoplasmosis, mucormycosis, pneumocystosis, or tuberculosis. Control groups were drawn from all admitted patients (random controls) and those with community-acquired infections (ID-controls). Development and validation datasets were created using randomization for dividing cases and controls (7:3), with a secondary validation using ID-controls. A logistic regression model was constructed using baseline and laboratory variables, with the unusual infections of interest outcome. The derivation dataset comprised 1043 cases and 7000 random controls, while the 451 cases were compared to 3000 random controls and 1990 ID-controls for validation. Within the derivation dataset, the model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87-0.89) with a good calibration accuracy (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.623). Comparable performance was observed in the primary (AUC = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.86-0.9) and secondary validation datasets (AUC = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.82-0.86). In this multicenter study, an EHR-based preliminary diagnostic model accurately identified five unusual fungal infections and tuberculosis in hospitalized patients. With further validation, this model could help decrease time to diagnosis.

Association between the shock index on admission and in-hospital mortality in the cardiac intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: An elevated shock index (SI) predicts worse outcomes in multiple clinical arenas. We aimed to determine whether the SI can aid in mortality risk stratification in unselected cardiac intensive care unit patients. METHODS: We included admissions to the Mayo Clinic from 2007 to 2015 and stratified them based on admission SI. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and predictors of in-hospital mortality were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: We included 9,939 unique cardiac intensive care unit patients with available data for SI. Patients were grouped by SI as follows: < 0.6, 3,973 (40%); 0.6-0.99, 4,810 (48%); and ≥ 1.0, 1,156 (12%). After multivariable adjustment, both heart rate (adjusted OR 1.06 per 10 beats per minute higher; CI 1.02-1.10; p-value 0.005) and systolic blood pressure (adjusted OR 0.94 per 10 mmHg higher; CI 0.90-0.97; p-value < 0.001) remained associated with higher in-hospital mortality. As SI increased there was an incremental increase in in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.07 per 0.1 beats per minute/mmHg higher, CI 1.04-1.10, p-Value < 0.001). A higher SI was associated with increased mortality across all examined admission diagnoses. CONCLUSION: The SI is a simple and universally available bedside marker that can be used at the time of admission to predict in-hospital mortality in cardiac intensive care unit patients.

Variation in Sedative and Analgesic Use During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Associated Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Providing analgesia and sedation is an essential component of caring for many mechanically ventilated patients. The selection of analgesic and sedative medications during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of these sedation practices on patient outcomes, remain incompletely characterized. RESEARCH QUESTION: What were the hospital patterns of analgesic and sedative use for patients with COVID-19 who received mechanical ventilation (MV), and what differences in clinical patient outcomes were observed across prevailing sedation practices? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study of hospitalized adults who received MV for COVID-19 from February 2020 through April 2021 within the Society of Critical Care Medicine Discovery Viral Infection and Respiratory Illness Universal Study (VIRUS) COVID-19 Registry. To describe common sedation practices, we used hierarchical clustering to group hospitals based on the percentage of patients who received various analgesic and sedative medications. We then used multivariable regression models to evaluate the association between hospital analgesia and sedation cluster and duration of MV (with a placement of death [POD] approach to account for competing risks). RESULTS: We identified 1,313 adults across 35 hospitals admitted with COVID-19 who received MV. Two clusters of analgesia and sedation practices were identified. Cluster 1 hospitals generally administered opioids and propofol with occasional use of additional sedatives (eg, benzodiazepines, alpha-agonists, and ketamine); cluster 2 hospitals predominantly used opioids and benzodiazepines without other sedatives. As compared with patients in cluster 2, patients admitted to cluster 1 hospitals underwent a shorter adjusted median duration of MV with POD (ß-estimate, -5.9; 95% CI, -11.2 to -0.6; P = .03). INTERPRETATION: Patients who received MV for COVID-19 in hospitals that prioritized opioids and propofol for analgesia and sedation experienced shorter adjusted median duration of MV with POD as compared with patients who received MV in hospitals that primarily used opioids and benzodiazepines.

Pulmonary function as a continuum of risk: critical care utilization and survival after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation - a multicenter cohort study.

Abnormal pre-transplant pulmonary function tests (PFTs) are associated with reduced survival after allogeneic HCT. Existing scoring systems consider risk dichotomously, attributing risk only to those with abnormal lung function. In a multicenter cohort of 1717 allo-HCT recipients, we examined the association between pre-transplant PFT measures and need for ICU admission (120d), frequency of mechanical ventilation (120d) and overall survival (5 y). Predictive models were developed and validated using Cox proportional hazards, incorporating age, FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1-second) and diffusing capacity (DLCO). In univariate analysis, hazard ratios for each outcome (95% CI) were: mechanical ventilation (FEV1: 0.60 [0.52-0.69], DLCO: 0.69 [0.61-0.77], p < 0.001), ICU admission (FEV1: 0.74 [0.67-0.82], DLCO: 0.79 [0.72-0.86], p < 0.001) and overall survival (FEV1: HR 0.87 [0.81-0.94], DLCO: 0.83 [0.77-0.89], p < 0.001). A multivariable Cox model was developed and compared to the HCT-CI Pulmonary score in a validation cohort. This model was better at predicting need for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation, while both models predicted overall survival (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the risk conferred by pre-transplant pulmonary function should be considered in a continuous rather than dichotomous manner. A more granular prognostication system can better inform risk of critical care utilization in the early post-HCT period.

Outcomes of Acute Respiratory Failure in Patients With Cancer in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the epidemiological effect-magnitude and outcomes of patients with cancer vs those without cancer who are hospitalized with acute respiratory failure (ARF). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We reviewed hospitalizations within the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2018. Patients were classified based on a diagnosis of solid-organ cancer, hematologic cancer, or no cancer. Noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) failure was defined as patients who initially received NIPPV and had progression to invasive mechanical ventilation. Weighted samples were used to derive population estimates. RESULTS: During the study period, there were an estimated 8,837,209 admissions with ARF in the United States, 8.9% (783,625) of which had solid-organ cancer and 2.0% (176,095) had hematologic cancers. Annually, 319,907 patients with cancer are admitted with ARF, with 27.3% (87,302) requiring invasive mechanical ventilation and 10.0% (31,998) requiring NIPPV. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients with cancer vs those without cancer (24.0% [76,813] vs 12.3% [322,465]; P<.001), and this proprotion persisted when stratified by the highest method of oxygen delivery. Patients with cancer had longer hospital length of stay (7.0 days [3.0 to 12.0 days] vs 5.0 days [3.0 to 10.0 days]; P<.001) and were more likely to have NIPPV failure (14.9% [3,992] vs 12.8% [41,875]). Compared with those with solid-organ cancer, patients with hematologic cancers experienced worse outcomes. The association between underlying cancer diagnosis and outcomes remained consistent when adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities. CONCLUSION: In the United States, patients with cancer account for over 10% of ARF hospital admissions (959,720 of 8,837,209). They experience an approximately 2-fold higher mortality versus those without cancer. Those with hematologic cancers appear to experience worse outcomes than patients with solid-organ cancers.

DERIVATION OF A MORTALITY PREDICTION MODEL IN CRITICAL CARE PATIENTS WITH CIRRHOSIS AND SEPSIS.

ABSTRACT: Objective : The aim of the study is to develop a predictive model for in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and sepsis, using clinical and laboratory data. Design : This is a retrospective cohort study. Setting: Medical and mixed intensive care units (ICUs) of a tertiary medical center. Patients : Cirrhotic adults were admitted with sepsis to the ICUs from January of 2007 to May of 2017. Interventions : None. Measurements and Main Results : Of 2,595 ICU admissions of patients with cirrhosis, 277 with first ICU admission for sepsis were included in the analysis, and 37% died in the hospital. Patients who stayed in the ICU for at least 6 h (n = 275) were considered for the multivariate model. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to estimate best parameter values and model performance, and the final model was chosen as the model maximizing area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Variables in order of impact were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score, initial serum lactate, conjugated bilirubin, serum creatinine, model for end-stage liver disease score, age, body mass index, and serum hemoglobin. The final best model from cross-validation presented an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75, using a cut-point of 50% estimated probability, sensitivity and specificity were 0.46 and 0.90, respectively, with positive predictive value of 0.72 and negative predictive value of 0.74. These results were similar to the APACHE III only model (AUC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.43, specificity = 0.89, positive predictive value = 0.69, negative predictive value = 0.73). Conclusion : The combination of initial serum lactate level, conjugated bilirubin, initial serum creatinine, model for end-stage liver disease score, age, body mass index, and serum hemoglobin did not yield meaningful improvement in the AUC and did not provide advantage over the APACHE III score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and sepsis.

Understanding Team Dynamics and Culture of Safety using Video Reflexive Ethnography during Real-Time Emergent Intubation.

RATIONALE: Endotracheal intubation is the third most common bedside procedure in U.S. hospitals. In over 40% of intubations preventable complications attributable to human factors occur. A better understanding of team dynamics during intubation may improve patient safety. OBJECTIVE: To explore team dynamics and safety-related actions during emergent endotracheal intubations in the emergency department (ED) and intensive care unit (ICU), and to engage members of the care team in reflection for process improvement through a novel video-based team debriefing technique. METHODS: Video-reflexive ethnography involves in-situ video-recording and reflexive discussions with practitioners to scrutinize behaviors and to identify opportunities for improvement. In this study, real-time intubations were recorded in the ED and ICU at Mayo Clinic Rochester and facilitated video-reflexive sessions were conducted with the multidisciplinary procedural teams. Themes about team dynamics and safety-related action were identified inductively from transcriptions of recorded sessions. RESULTS: Between December 2022 and January 2023, eight video-reflexive sessions were conducted with a total of 78 participants. Multidisciplinary members included nurses (n=23), respiratory therapists (n=16), pharmacists (n=7), advanced practitioners (n=5), and physicians (n=26). Video-reflexive discussions identified major safety gaps and proposed several solutions related to the use of a multidisciplinary intubation checklist, standardized communication and team positioning, developing a culture of safety, and routinely debriefing after the procedure. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study may inform the development of a team supervision model for emergent endotracheal intubations. This approach could integrate key components such as a multidisciplinary intubation checklist, standardized communication and team positioning, a culture of safety, and debriefing as part of the procedure itself.

Individualized prediction of critical illness in older adults: Validation of an elders risk assessment model.

BACKGROUND: The electronic health record (EHR) presents new opportunities for the timely identification of patients at high risk of critical illness and the implementation of preventive strategies. This study aims to externally validate an EHR-based Elders Risk Assessment (ERA) score to identify older patients at high risk of future critical illness during a primary care visit. METHODS: This historical cohort study included patients aged ≥65 years who had primary care visits at Mayo Clinic Rochester, MN, between July 2019 and December 2021. The ERA score at the time of the primary care visit was used to predict critical illness, defined as death or ICU admission within 1 year of the visit. RESULTS: A total of 12,885 patients were included in the analysis. The median age at the time of the primary care visit was 75 years, with 44.6% being male. 93.7% of participants were White, and 64.2% were married. The median (25th, 75th percentile) ERA score was 4 (0, 9). 11.3% of study participants were admitted to the ICU or died within 1 year of the visit. The ERA score predicted critical illness within 1 year of a primary care visit with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83-0.85), which indicates good discrimination. An ERA score of 9 was identified as optimal for implementing and testing potential preventive strategies, with the odds ratio of having the primary outcome in patients with ERA score ≥9 being 11.33 (95%CI 9.98-12.87). CONCLUSIONS: This simple EHR-based risk assessment model can predict critical illness within 1 year of primary care visits in older patients. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for testing and implementation of preventive strategies to promote the well-being of older adults at risk of critical illness and its consequences.

The Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio and Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

We aimed to assess the prognostic role of the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) via a single-center retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients from 1/2009 to 12/2019. Patients were dichotomized into lower NLR (≤12) and higher NLR (>12). The primary outcome was mortality. ICU admission and hospital- and ICU-free days were secondary outcomes. The pneumonia severity index (PSI) and the NLR's ability to predict outcomes was also tested. An NLR ≤12 was observed in 2513 (62.2%) patients and >12 in 1526 (37.8%). After adjusting for PSI, the NLR was not associated with hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.115; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.774, 1.606; p = 0.559), but it was associated with a higher risk of ICU admission (OR 1.405; 95% CI 1.216, 1.624; p < 0.001). The PSI demonstrated acceptable discrimination for mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.78; 95% CI 0.75, 0.82) which was not improved by adding the NLR (AUC 0.78; 95% CI 0.75, 0.82, p = 0.4476). The PSI's performance in predicting ICU admission was also acceptable (AUC 0.75; 95% CI 0.74, 0.77) and improved by including the NLR (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.74, 0.77, p = 0.008), although with limited clinical significance. The NLR was not superior to the PSI for predicting mortality in hospitalized CAP patients.

Early Prevention of Critical Illness in Older Adults: Adaptation and Pilot Testing of an Electronic Risk Score and Checklist.

OBJECTIVE: Given limited critical care resources and an aging population, early interventions to prevent critical illness are vital. In this work, we measured post-implementation outcomes after introducing a novel electronic scoring system (Elders Risk Assessment-ERA) and a risk-factor checklist, Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness (CERTAIN), to detect older patients at high risk of critical illness in a primary care setting. METHODS: The study was conducted at a family medicine clinic in Kasson, MN. The ADAPT-ITT framework was used to modify the CERTAIN checklist for primary care during 2 co-design workshops involving interdisciplinary clinicians, held in April 2023. The ERA score and modified CERTAIN checklist were implemented between May and July 2023 and identify and assess all patients age ≥60 years at risk of critical illness during their primary care visits. Implementation outcomes were evaluated at the end of the study via an anonymous survey and EHR data extraction. RESULTS: Fourteen clinicians participated in 2 co-design workshops. A total of 19 clinicians participated in a post-pilot survey. All survey items were rated on a 5-point Likert type scale. Mean acceptability of the ERA score and checklist was rated 3.35 (SD = 0.75) and 3.09 (SD = 0.64), respectively. Appropriateness had a mean rating of 3.38 (SD = 0.82) for the ERA score and 3.19 (SD = 0.59) for the checklist. Mean feasibility was rated 3.38(SD = 0.85) and 2.92 (SD = 0.76) for the ERA score and checklist, respectively. The adoption rate was 50% (19/38) among clinicians, but the reach was low at 17% (49/289) of eligible patients. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study evaluated the implementation of an intervention that introduced the ERA score and CERTAIN checklist into a primary care practice. Results indicate moderate acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility of the ERA score, and similar ratings for the checklist, with slightly lower feasibility. While checklist adoption was moderate, reach was limited, indicating inconsistent use. RECOMMENDATIONS: We plan to use the open-ended resurvey responses to further modify the CERTAIN-FM checklist and implementation process. The ADAPT-ITT framework is a useful model for adapting the checklist to meet the primary care clinician needs.

Safety, feasibility, and impact on the gut microbiome of kefir administration in critically ill adults.

BACKGROUND: Dysbiosis of the gut microbiome is frequent in the intensive care unit (ICU), potentially leading to a heightened risk of nosocomial infections. Enhancing the gut microbiome has been proposed as a strategic approach to mitigate potential adverse outcomes. While prior research on select probiotic supplements has not successfully shown to improve gut microbial diversity, fermented foods offer a promising alternative. In this open-label phase I safety and feasibility study, we examined the safety and feasibility of kefir as an initial step towards utilizing fermented foods to mitigate gut dysbiosis in critically ill patients. METHODS: We administered kefir in escalating doses (60 mL, followed by 120 mL after 12 h, then 240 mL daily) to 54 critically ill patients with an intact gastrointestinal tract. To evaluate kefir's safety, we monitored for gastrointestinal symptoms. Feasibility was determined by whether patients received a minimum of 75% of their assigned kefir doses. To assess changes in the gut microbiome composition following kefir administration, we collected two stool samples from 13 patients: one within 72 h of admission to the ICU and another at least 72 h after the first stool sample. RESULTS: After administering kefir, none of the 54 critically ill patients exhibited signs of kefir-related bacteremia. No side effects like bloating, vomiting, or aspiration were noted, except for diarrhea in two patients concurrently on laxatives. Out of the 393 kefir doses prescribed for all participants, 359 (91%) were successfully administered. We were able to collect an initial stool sample from 29 (54%) patients and a follow-up sample from 13 (24%) patients. Analysis of the 26 paired samples revealed no increase in gut microbial α-diversity between the two timepoints. However, there was a significant improvement in the Gut Microbiome Wellness Index (GMWI) by the second timepoint (P = 0.034, one-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test); this finding supports our hypothesis that kefir administration can improve gut health in critically ill patients. Additionally, the known microbial species in kefir were found to exhibit varying levels of engraftment in patients' guts. CONCLUSIONS: Providing kefir to critically ill individuals is safe and feasible. Our findings warrant a larger evaluation of kefir's safety, tolerability, and impact on gut microbiome dysbiosis in patients admitted to the ICU. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05416814; trial registered on June 13, 2022.

Temporal trends in critical care utilization and outcomes in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients.

Historically, the prognosis of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (allo-HCT) recipients who require intensive care unit (ICU) admission has been poor. We aimed to describe the epidemiological trends of ICU utilization and outcomes in allo-HCT patients. We conducted a retrospective cohort study including adults (≥ 18) undergoing allo-HCT between 01/01/2005 and 31/12/2020 at Mayo Clinic, Rochester. Temporal trends in outcomes were assessed by robust linear regression modelling. Risk factors for hospital mortality were chosen a priori and assessed with multivariable logistic regression modelling. Of 1,249 subjects, there were 486 ICU admissions among 287 individuals. Although older patients underwent allo-HCT (1.64 [95% CI: 1.11 to 2.45] years per year; P = 0.025), there was no change in ICU utilization over time (P = 0.91). The ICU and hospital mortality rates were 19.2% (55/287) and 28.2% (81/287), respectively. There was a decline in ICU mortality (-0.38% [95% CI: -0.70 to -0.06%] per year; P = 0.035). The 1-year post-HCT mortality for those requiring ICU admission was 56.1% (161/287), with no significant difference over time, versus 15.8% (141/891, 71 missing) among those who did not. The frequency and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) declined. In multivariable analyses, higher serum lactate, higher sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores, acute respiratory distress (ARDS), and need for IMV were associated with greater odds of hospital mortality. Over time, rates of ICU utilization have remained stable, despite increasing patient age. Several trends suggest improvement in outcomes, notably lower ICU mortality and frequency of IMV. However, long-term survival remains unchanged. Further work is needed to improve long-term outcomes in this population.

Safety and Efficacy of Reduced-Dose Versus Full-Dose Alteplase for Acute Pulmonary Embolism: A Multicenter Observational Comparative Effectiveness Study.

OBJECTIVES: Systemic thrombolysis improves outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) but is associated with the risk of hemorrhage. The data on efficacy and safety of reduced-dose alteplase are limited. The study objective was to compare the characteristics, outcomes, and complications of patients with PE treated with full- or reduced-dose alteplase regimens. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective observational study. SETTING: Tertiary care hospital and 15 community and academic centers of a large healthcare system. PATIENTS: Hospitalized patients with PE treated with systemic alteplase. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Pre- and post-alteplase hemodynamic and respiratory variables, patient outcomes, and complications were compared. Propensity score (PS) weighting was used to adjust for imbalances of baseline characteristics between reduced- and full-dose patients. Separate analyses were performed using the unweighted and weighted cohorts. Ninety-eight patients were treated with full-dose (100 mg) and 186 with reduced-dose (50 mg) regimens. Following alteplase, significant improvements in shock index, blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, and supplemental oxygen requirements were observed in both groups. Hemorrhagic complications were lower with the reduced-dose compared with the full-dose regimen (13% vs. 24.5%, p = 0.014), and most were minor. Major extracranial hemorrhage occurred in 1.1% versus 6.1%, respectively ( p = 0.022). Complications were associated with supratherapeutic levels of heparin anticoagulation in 37.5% of cases and invasive procedures in 31.3% of cases. The differences in complications persisted after PS weighting (15.4% vs. 24.7%, p = 0.12 and 1.3% vs. 7.1%, p = 0.067), but did not reach statistical significance. There were no significant differences in mortality, discharge destination, ICU or hospital length of stay, or readmission after PS weighting. CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective, PS-weighted observational study, when compared with the full-dose, reduced-dose alteplase results in similar outcomes but fewer hemorrhagic complications. Avoidance of excessive levels of anticoagulation or invasive procedures should be considered to further reduce complications.

Serum lactate and mean arterial pressure thresholds in patients with cirrhosis and septic shock.

BACKGROUND: The Sepsis-3 guidelines have incorporated serum lactate levels of >2 mmol/L in septic shock definition to account for higher observed mortality. Further evidence is needed to support this threshold in cirrhosis, as well as target mean arterial pressure (MAP) during resuscitation. METHODS: This observational cohort study investigated the association between initial serum lactate and resuscitation MAP levels on in-hospital mortality in patients with and without cirrhosis. Patients admitted to the intensive care unit for the treatment of septic shock between 2006 and 2021 in a quaternary academic center were included. Patients with cirrhosis documented on imaging and International Classification of Disease codes (n=595) were compared to patients without cirrhosis (n=575). The association of intensive care unit admission lactate levels and median 2-hour MAP with in-hospital mortality and the need for continuous renal replacement therapy was assessed. The association between median 24-hour MAP and in-hospital mortality was analyzed post hoc. RESULTS: Within the cirrhosis group, admission lactate levels of 2-4 and >4 mmol/L were associated with increased in-hospital mortality compared to lactate <2 mmol/L [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.69, CI: 1.03-2.81, aOR: 4.02, CI: 2.53-6.52]. Median 24-hour MAP 60-65 and <60 mm Hg were also associated with increased in-hospital mortality compared with MAP >65 mm Hg (aOR: 2.84, CI: 1.64-4.92 and aOR: 7.34, CI: 3.17-18.76). In the noncirrhosis group, associations with in-hospital mortality were weaker for lactate 2-4 and >4 mmol/L (aOR: 1.32, CI: 0.77-2.27 and aOR: 2.25, CI: 1.40-3.67) and median 24-hour MAP 60-65 and <60 mm Hg (aOR: 1.70, CI: 0.65-4.14 and aOR: 4.41, CI: 0.79-29.38). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support utilizing lactate >2 mmol/L in the definition of septic shock, as well as a target MAP of >65 mm Hg during resuscitation in patients with cirrhosis.

Lung Injury Prediction Model in Bone Marrow Transplantation: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Rationale: Pulmonary complications contribute significantly to nonrelapse mortality following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). Identifying patients at high risk can help enroll such patients into clinical studies to better understand, prevent, and treat posttransplantation respiratory failure syndromes. Objectives: To develop and validate a prediction model to identify those at increased risk of acute respiratory failure after HCT. Methods: Patients underwent HCT between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021, at one of three institutions. Those treated in Rochester, MN, formed the derivation cohort, and those treated in Scottsdale, AZ, or Jacksonville, FL, formed the validation cohort. The primary outcome was the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), with secondary outcomes including the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and/or noninvasive ventilation (NIV). Predictors were based on prior case-control studies. Measurements and Main Results: Of 2,450 patients undergoing stem cell transplantation, there were 1,718 hospitalizations (888 patients) in the training cohort and 1,005 hospitalizations (470 patients) in the test cohort. A 22-point model was developed, with 11 points from prehospital predictors and 11 points from posttransplantation or early (<24-h) in-hospital predictors. The model performed well in predicting ARDS (C-statistic, 0.905; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.870-0.941) and the need for IMV and/or NIV (C-statistic, 0.863; 95% CI, 0.828-0.898). The test cohort differed markedly in demographic, medical, and hematologic characteristics. The model also performed well in this setting in predicting ARDS (C-statistic, 0.841; 95% CI, 0.782-0.900) and the need for IMV and/or NIV (C-statistic, 0.872; 95% CI, 0.831-0.914). Conclusions: A novel prediction model incorporating data elements from the pretransplantation, posttransplantation, and early in-hospital domains can reliably predict the development of post-HCT acute respiratory failure.

The human gut microbiome in critical illness: disruptions, consequences, and therapeutic frontiers.

With approximately 39 trillion cells and over 20 million genes, the human gut microbiome plays an integral role in both health and disease. Modern living has brought a widespread use of processed food and beverages, antimicrobial and immunomodulatory drugs, and invasive procedures, all of which profoundly disrupt the delicate homeostasis between the host and its microbiome. Of particular interest is the human gut microbiome, which is progressively being recognized as an important contributing factor in many aspects of critical illness, from predisposition to recovery. Herein, we describe the current understanding of the adverse impacts of standard intensive care interventions on the human gut microbiome and delve into how these microbial alterations can influence patient outcomes. Additionally, we explore the potential association between the gut microbiome and post-intensive care syndrome, shedding light on a previously underappreciated avenue that may enhance patient recuperation following critical illness. There is an impending need for future epidemiological studies to encompass detailed phenotypic analyses of gut microbiome perturbations. Interventions aimed at restoring the gut microbiome represent a promising therapeutic frontier in the quest to prevent and treat critical illnesses.

PROGNOSTIC PERFORMANCE OF SERIAL DETERMINATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR CARDIOVASCULAR ANGIOGRAPHY AND INTERVENTIONS SHOCK CLASSIFICATION IN ADULTS WITH CRITICAL ILLNESS.

ABSTRACT: Purpose: The aim of the study is to evaluate whether serial assessment of shock severity can improve prognostication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective cohort of 21,461 ICU patient admissions from 2014 to 2018. We assigned the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) Shock Stage in each 4-h block during the first 24 h of ICU admission; shock was defined as SCAI Shock stage C, D, or E. In-hospital mortality was evaluated using logistic regression. Results: The admission SCAI Shock stages were as follows: A, 39.0%; B, 27.0%; C, 28.9%; D, 2.6%; and E, 2.5%. The SCAI Shock stage subsequently increased in 30.6%, and late-onset shock developed in 30.4%. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients who had shock on admission (11.9%) or late-onset shock (7.3%) versus no shock (4.3%). Persistence of shock predicted higher mortality (adjusted OR = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.06-1.13, for each ICU block with shock). The mean SCAI Shock stage had higher discrimination for in-hospital mortality than the admission or maximum SCAI Shock stage. Dynamic modeling of the SCAI Shock classification improved discrimination for in-hospital mortality (C-statistic = 0.64-0.71). Conclusions: Serial application of the SCAI Shock classification provides improved mortality risk stratification compared with a single assessment on admission, facilitating dynamic prognostication.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Rollout on Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Admission and Mortality Trends: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Challenges with SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization, access, and hesitancy have influenced vaccination uptake. RESEARCH QUESTION: Was the impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine rollout on COVID-19 monthly admission and mortality trends different between Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We used interrupted time series analysis to conduct an ancillary study of the Viral Infection and Respiratory Illness Universal Study registry supplemented by electronic health record data from five participating Mayo Clinic sites in Florida, Arizona, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. We included hospitalized patients with COVID-19 admitted between April 2020 and December 2021. Our primary outcome was the impact of vaccine rollout on admission trends. Our secondary outcome was the impact of vaccine rollout on mortality trends. RESULTS: This interrupted time series analysis includes 6,442 patients. Vaccine rollout was associated with improved monthly hospital admission trends among both Hispanic and non-Hispanic patients. Among Hispanic patients, prevaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 12.9% (95% CI, 8.1%-17.9%). Immediately after vaccine rollout, patient admissions declined by -66.3% (95% CI, -75.6% to -53.9%). Postvaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 3.7% (95% CI, 0.2%-7.3%). Among non-Hispanic patients, prevaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 35.8% (95% CI, 33.4%-38.1%). Immediately after vaccine rollout, patient admissions declined by -75.2% (95% CI, -77.6% to -72.7%). Postvaccine rollout, monthly admissions increased by 5.6% (95% CI, 4.5%-6.7%). These prevaccine rollout admission trends were significantly different (P < .001). Postvaccine rollout, the change in admission trend was significantly different (P < .001). The associated beneficial impact from vaccine rollout on monthly hospital admission trends among Hispanic patients was significantly lower. The trend in monthly mortality rate was fourfold greater (worse) among Hispanic patients (8.3%; 95% CI, 3.6%-13.4%) vs non-Hispanic patients (2.2%; 95% CI, 0.6%-3.8%), but this was not related to vaccine rollout. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 vaccine rollout was associated with improved COVID-19 admission trends among non-Hispanic vs Hispanic patients. Vaccine rollout did not influence mortality trends in either group, which were four times higher among Hispanic patients. Improved vaccine rollout may have reduced disparities in admission trends for Hispanic patients, but other factors influenced their mortality trends.